Between One-Colored Government and Power-Sharing: Scenarios for a Syrian Transitional Government in Light of International Experiences
Executive Summary:
This policy paper seeks to examine potential scenarios for the formation of a transitional government in Syria by reviewing models of transitional governance found in both the literature and comparative international experiences.
The paper highlights two principal models observed in comparative cases. The first is the one-color government model, in which authority is concentrated within a single political actor, as seen in Rwanda and South Korea during the 1970s and 1980s. The second model is the participatory or coalition government, which may take the form of political inclusion or technocratic arrangements, as in the cases of Libya and Tunisia.
The paper assumes that the priority objectives of Syria’s transitional phase are: restoring security and stability through consolidating arms within state institutions and strengthening them; re-establishing basic public services; and subsequently opening and regulating the public sphere. Based on these objectives, three scenarios for a transitional government are considered: (1) the status quo scenario, in which the transitional government remains one-colored; (2) the central coalition scenario, which incorporates broader political participation; and (3) the technocratic scenario, which emphasizes expertise and competence rather than political alignment.
The study ultimately favors the “solid coalition” model. This entails the establishment of a strong, cohesive core within sovereign ministries and key institutions, while ensuring genuine and substantive participation of other political and national actors across remaining sectors. Such a model reflects a form of balanced and prudent leadership—a carefully calibrated blend of stability, inclusion, and competence. It aims to strike a balance among competing interests and influential forces on the ground, while prioritizing essential transitional goals such as restoring security, re-establishing services, opening the public sphere, and advancing transitional justice.
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مدير وحدة التوافق والهوية المشتركة في مركز الحوار السوري، يحمل شهادة الدكتوراه في القانون العام من جامعة حلب، وحائز على اعتمادية المعهد العالي للحقوق في الشرق الأوسط، وعمل سابقاً مدرساً في كلية الحقوق في جامعة حلب الحرة. يركز في أبحاثه الحالية على دراسة ديناميكيات العلاقة بين المجتمع السوري والنصوص القانونية والدستورية منها على وجه التحديد.
هنادي حجار
بكلوريوس علوم سياسية من الجامعة الأردنية
ماجستير حقوق إنسان وتنمية إنسانية من الجامعة الاردنية
دبلوم علاقات عامة
باحثة دكتوراة قانون عام
ناشطة في المجتمع المدني السوري
