Post-Assad Syria: The Future of Syrian–Chinese Relations in a Transforming Global Order
Executive Summary:
This report examines the evolving trajectory of Syrian–Chinese relations in the post–Assad period within an international context characterized by shifting power balances and the gradual rise of China as a global pole challenging U.S. dominance.
The report begins by outlining the sources of China’s growing power, which are no longer confined to the economic domain but are increasingly underpinned by military and technological instruments of influence that enhance Beijing’s capacity to compete. At the same time, U.S. hegemony is gradually eroding. China has succeeded in narrowing the gap with Washington in areas such as military manufacturing, space, and overall productive capacity, and has even surpassed it in certain strategic industries, including rare earth minerals and shipbuilding. These advances have provided China with tangible leverage within the emerging balance of power.
As the United States reduces its strategic focus on the Middle East in favor of the Indo-Pacific, China has begun to enter the regional scene through a cautious and calibrated approach. This was clearly reflected in its mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.
Beyond the immediate region, China maintains expanding military and technological ties with Pakistan, which recently concluded a joint defense arrangement with Saudi Arabia. Pakistan confronts India with Chinese and Saudi backing, while “Israel” supports India. This cautious Chinese engagement coincides with a broader regional trend, whereby states such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Turkey are seeking to diversify their security umbrellas away from exclusive reliance on Washington—a tendency that became more pronounced following the “Israeli” strike on Qatar.
Amid these transformations, the new Syria faces fluid and uncertain long-term options. Current Syrian–Chinese relations appear to be improving slowly and at a minimal level. China has publicly expressed principled political support for Syrian sovereignty and has condemned “Israeli” interventions, yet its engagement remains cautious. This caution was evident in the meeting between the Chinese ambassador and the Syrian foreign minister, as well as in statements by China’s representative at the United Nations, who referred to the “Syrian temporary authorities” rather than the “Syrian government.”
The report seeks to analyze how several factors may shape the long-term trajectory of bilateral relations, most notably:
- The escalating “Israeli” threat and Damascus’s potential efforts to identify a new deterrence umbrella in coordination with regional states.
- China’s interest in linking Syria to the Belt and Road Initiative, expanding its economic footprint, and increasing its overall engagement in the region.
The report reviews possible future pathways for Syrian–Chinese relations and concludes by emphasizing the necessity for public-affairs stakeholders and Syrian decision-makers to monitor the international environment with strategic awareness, and to keep pace with major global shifts through coordination between national institutions and research centers in order to periodically update assessments and policy options.
To read the full report click here (Arabic)
باحث ومستشار، كتب و شارك في كتابة العديد من الأوراق المتعلقة بالملف السوري. كما عمل مستشاراً وباحثاً في الشأن السوري لدى عدة مراكز سياسات سورية ناشئة، ولدى منظمات دولية. مدرب في مجال أساسيات ريادة الأعمال وأساسيات التحليل السياسي،
