Assessing the Roles of Iran, Russia, and “Israel” on the Syrian Coast
Executive Summary:
This report examines the recent wave of tension along the Syrian coast within the context of the intersection between mobilization by remnants of the former regime and sectarian polarization that followed the bombing at the Ali Mosque in Homs. It explores the potential roles of international actors in driving or capitalizing on this mobilization. The report concludes that internal factors—most notably attempts by regime remnants to regain influence—remain the primary drivers of the current dynamics. Nevertheless, the regional environment renders external interventions by certain states an important factor in shaping the timing and the limits of these actors’ capacities.
The report argues that Iran represents the most influential external actor in the recent unrest, through efforts to disrupt the situation and spread disorder by activating pre-existing networks, safeguarding its logistical infrastructure, and employing limited instability as a tool of pressure and indirect negotiation with Damascus and its allies amid escalating regional tensions. By contrast, Russia does not appear to be seriously engaged in supporting the current mobilization. Instead, Moscow prefers to preserve its influence through stability and formal arrangements, while avoiding reliance on weak actors or risky ventures that could jeopardize its interests.
As for “Israel,” the report suggests that it is currently content with probing and signaling options without providing organized support thus far. Its focus appears to be on intelligence gathering and preventing the emergence of new threats, while steering clear of the costly option of cultivating local proxy actors.
In its conclusion, the report stresses that the persistence of regime-remnant activities more than a year after political change underscores the fragility of the stabilization process. It further emphasizes that fortifying Syria’s internal front cannot be achieved through security tools alone. Rather, it requires genuine transitional justice, the rule of law, and serious engagement with the grievances and concerns of the revolutionary constituency, as the most important guarantee of stability for the new Syria and for Syrian citizens across all social and sectarian backgrounds.
To read the full report click here (Arabic)
باحث ومستشار، كتب و شارك في كتابة العديد من الأوراق المتعلقة بالملف السوري. كما عمل مستشاراً وباحثاً في الشأن السوري لدى عدة مراكز سياسات سورية ناشئة، ولدى منظمات دولية. مدرب في مجال أساسيات ريادة الأعمال وأساسيات التحليل السياسي،
