Arabic efforts to re-legitimacy the Assad regime; Reflections on the motives, causes and consequences
Executive summary:
The roots of the attempts to normalize some Arab countries with the Assad regime are related to the major shifts that occurred in the Syrian dossier in recent years after the Russian intervention in late 2015, which imposed a pivotal Russian role in the region that was enhanced by its alignment with “Israeli” interests within a fragile and turbulent American presence. The Russian-Israeli consensus formed an attractive factor that attracted some regional actors to intersect their national security interests with it, this was a key factor in pushing some Arab countries to normalize their relations with the Assad regime. The regional actors see the power of the Russian presence as filling the vacuum of the American role. Russians in turn seek to present themselves as guarantors of “Israel’s” security as an agreed-upon international strategic demand. The Russian-Israeli consensus to protect the Assad regime has been playing a central role in pushing some Arab countries to consider this consensus as a green light to normalize their relation with the Assad regime. There are also special motives and interests for each country that intersect with the Russian and “Israeli” consensus, such as economic interests and the cultural/ideological vision of the Arab Spring waves.
The Russian-American consensus is an essential pillar in the process of normalization with the Assad regime, positively or negatively. The United States has been overlooked the implementation of the Caesar’s Act requirements against countries that took political and economic normalization steps with the Assad regime after signs of rapprochement with Russia in Syria emerged following the initial understanding on the file of extending humanitarian aid to Syria through the Bab al-Hawa crossing last year.
on the other hand, the Arab efforts to normalize with the Assad regime enjoy initial Iranian acceptance due to the benefits Iran may reap on the economic and political levels, notably that the Arab efforts do not touch the essence of the Iranian presence in Syria, especially the cultural, social and religious penetration, thus Iran invests in breaking the regime’s isolation to expand and enhance its penetration into Syrian institutions through its “soft power” tools.
However, due to the fact that Assad regime is closely linked to Iran, and the lack of general Arab consensus regarding normalization with the Assad regime, and the declared position of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey towards rejecting normalization in addition to the changeable US policy based on the political context. It seems that there are many obstacles to normalization. Simultaneously, this situation open opportunities for Revolutionary Syrian “opposition” forces and human rights organizations – at the official and unofficial level – to support the rights of the Syrian people, reorganize their selves and provide an alternative legitimacy, or – at least- to prevent the expansion’s process of re-legitimize the Assad regime.
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مؤسسة بحثية سورية تسعى إلى الإسهام في بناء الرؤى والمعارف بما يساعد السوريين على إنضاج حلول عملية لمواجهة التحديات الوطنية المشتركة وتحقيق التنمية المستدامة
