Does the Liberation of Syria Open New Avenues for Addressing the Kurdish Question in the Region?
Executive Summary:
This report analyzes the profound transformations that have reshaped both the Syrian and regional landscapes following the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, with particular emphasis on their implications for the Kurdish question in Turkey and Syria. It argues that this watershed event has created an unprecedented political and security environment that has revitalized prospects for renewed settlement initiatives between the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). A notable manifestation of this shift is the revival of the proposal introduced by the Turkish Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) in October 2024, calling for Abdullah Öcalan to deliver a speech in the Turkish parliament urging the PKK to disarm and dissolve itself.
The report highlights that the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) will inevitably be at the core of this trajectory, given their deep organizational and ideological ties to the PKK, and their role as the primary military actor in northeastern Syria. It further notes that although Turkey has engaged in continuous military operations through the Syrian National Army against the SDF since late November 2024, it has not ruled out a political approach that would incorporate these forces into the “New Syrian Army,” contingent on meeting a series of political and security demands. Chief among these are the withdrawal of foreign PKK cadres from Syria and the granting of limited cultural rights to Kurds (such as education in the Kurdish language), short of conferring political autonomy.
The report also underscores Ankara’s dual-track strategy, which combines gestures toward a political settlement with readiness to resort to decisive military action should negotiations fail. This dynamic unfolds amid a likely reduction in U.S. support for the SDF following Donald Trump’s return to the White House, coupled with the absence of credible guarantees from European or Israeli actors to offset this vulnerability. Moreover, the SDF faces growing internal pressures, including a weak social base and mounting criticism of its local governance policies.
In conclusion, the report argues that the current moment represents a rare opportunity to recalibrate the balance in the Kurdish file, either through a negotiated settlement that integrates Kurdish forces into the emerging Syrian military structure with limited cultural safeguards, or through a decisive military outcome that could dismantle the SDF entirely. The trajectory of developments, however, will ultimately depend on the willingness of key actors—particularly the PKK and the SDF—to engage in a settlement that accommodates Turkey’s minimum security and political requirements while preserving some degree of political and cultural gains for the Kurds.
To read the full report click here (Arabic)
بكالوريوس في قسم الفلك وعلوم الفضاء من جامعة أنقرة، مهتم بالشأن التركي وعلاقته بقضايا اللاجئين السوريين، ونشر وشارك في إعداد عدد من التقارير والمقالات حول هذا الموضوع ضمن الوحدة المجتمعية في مركز الحوار السوري
