Humanitarian aid: a gateway to strengthening US-Russian rapprochement within the frame of the “step for step” approach?
Position Papers
The report examines the background of the US-Russian understandings on the humanitarian dossier in Syria, and the scenarios for extending the mechanism for passing humanitarian aids to northwest Syria through the Bab al-Hawa crossing or stopping it amid an American tending to enhance the Russian influence in Syria.
With the dwindling of international interest in the Syrian dossier of legal and politics; The “friends of the Syrian people” countries, led by the United States, have focused on the humanitarian file, seemingly alienating the political side from the circle of their interim priorities towards the Syrian issue, which had repercussions on the level of the American relationship with Russia, which in turn was able to play through the crossings and humanitarian aid card “across the borders” to reach a relative rapprochement with the United States in Syria; Russia obtained gains that strengthened its presence and influence in the region, and paved the way for building a broader understanding between the American and Russian sides; Perhaps the most important of them are: the United States overlooked the steps of some countries to re-float the Assad regime, ease some of the economic sanctions imposed on the regime, and Russia’s attempt to co-opt the “Syrian Democratic Forces – SDF” and expand in its areas without American reactions.
It appears that this US-Russian rapprochement in Syria will be reflected in the upcoming deliberations of the UN Security Council. Therefore, it is expected that there will be an agreement to extend the passage of aid through the Bab al-Hawa crossing for an additional six months, in return for Russia continuing to obtain some gains, such as increasing the coordination of the United States with it in the areas east of the Euphrates river, and obtaining more exceptions from the “Caesar Act.”
The fact that the dossier of crossings and “cross-border” aid remains subject to bargaining in the political negotiation process between international powers is a factor that threatens the humanitarian situation in northwestern Syria in particular. It is necessary to work to get this dossier out of the framework of the political quarrels that increase the suffering of the Syrian people.
Instead of the statements of US and international officials that talk about concern for the humanitarian issue being reflected in the form of a strict policy that isolates the humanitarian dossier from political quarrels and prevents Russian blackmail; The United States engages in a gradual policy of concessions to Russia and the Assad regime, and may eventually end gradually by stopping humanitarian aid “cross-border”, the passage of aid “cross-lines” may be used as a pretext by Russia to refuse to extend the continuation of “cross-border” aid next July.
To read the paper (Arabic): http://sydialogue.org/fuz8
مؤسسة بحثية سورية تسعى إلى الإسهام في بناء الرؤى والمعارف بما يساعد السوريين على إنضاج حلول عملية لمواجهة التحديات الوطنية المشتركة وتحقيق التنمية المستدامة
