“Kashaf” report: The Intensification of International Conflict in Syria and the Challenges of Reconstruction

The Syrian Revolution is passing through a new phase, the most prominent of whose characteristics is the transformation of the conflict from “proxy wars” to authentic wars, as the chances of a slide into direct confrontation between the effective regional and international powers has increased amid the rise of directly military skirmishes between those forces, nonetheless the continuing conflict between their proxies on the ground.

In the context of it being announced as a response to the Syrian regime use of chemical weapons in Douma, a triple strike was formed between the United States, Britain and France on the dawn of Saturday, April 14 against the Syrian regime, an important development and clear manifestation of the tension between those forces in Syria. It will, therefore, have an effect on the shape and nature of those parties.

Following its military control of Eastern Ghouta and the eastern villages of Qalamoun, the regime and its Russian allies appeared to have a scored a victory. However, the general scene seems to be escalating more with major changes taking place in the US administration with the appointment of several figures from the “hawks.” There has also began to leak from the administration of preparations of plans for military intervention in Southern and Eastern Syria and the introduction by the US and Russia of the latest types of strategic weapons in Syria, nonetheless the Iranian’s mobilization of their militias and mercenaries in Syria, especially in the Eastern region to face the increasing US threats.

And in light of the intensification of field conflict between the various groups in conflict, international diplomacy lies in complete stagnation, as the security resolutions and their meditations have had no significant impact, while the Astana meetings results in the conclusion of agreements that no one on the ground pays any mind to.

In light of these developments, and with the goal of identifying the most prominent features of international conflict in light of the current realities and developments, and then to propose mechanisms to deal with the challenges of this stage on the national level, the Syrian Dialogue Center established, and in participation with the “Strategic Observatory,” the eleventh “Kashaf” track seminar with the title: “The Intensification of International Conflict in Syria and the Challenges of Reconstruction,” with the attendance of a number of politicians, researchers and representatives of the Syrian revolutionary and opposition forces in addition to the participation of some media ? in Istanbul on Saturday 27 Rajab, 1439/ 14 April, 2018.

The seminar was composed of two sessions. The first was a demonstration of a situation assessment article from the strategic observatory by the expert in strategy who had prepared it, as well as some participants interventions, which continued into the second session. It was followed by the expert’s comments and answers to what had been discussed in the interventions.

This thematic report was prepared by following the “Chatham House” rule, without being bound to the chronological order of presentations and interventions. Rather, the thematic division of the report was organized with an intent of arranging the ideas in a smooth and objective way that would help the reader, as much as possible, to understand the content.

The report discusses three topics: the first topic contains a presentation of the research paper presented by the strategic observatory, whereas the second topic was allocated to the interventions and comments made by the seminar’s participants. The third topic discussed the Strategic Observatory’s expert’s comments and answers to the participant’s interventions.

To view the seminar’s papers:

Event Report of “Kashaf” seminar: “The Intensification of International Conflict in Syria and the Challenges of Reconstruction”
The Intensification of International Conflict in Syria and the Challenges of Reconstruction paper- Strategic Observatory