National Consensus Index – Sixth Edition
Summary:
In this first chapter of this publication the methodology of its research is presented; this included a special section dedicated to the revolutionary and opposition forces, this section goes into which specific organisations were surveyed. In total there were 34 organisations surveyed, divided into militaristic, political, or local popular committees with political activities. Then it goes into the main events and happenings and the various political stances the factions took with regards to them, 21 specific events. After that the chapter clarifies the methodology of surveying and tracking these positions, as well as how they were classified then translated into a numerical form. It then delves into the rules used to analyse the positions taken by the various factions, and finally defining the standard of “consensus” and “disagreement”; all done through the lens of revolutionary and opposition forces.
The first chapter also included an explanation of the methodology used with regards to consensus of the local populous towards the most important events in 2021; the data was gathered through a questionnaire that was specifically created for this matter “appendix number 2”. As well as defining the attributes of the sample and how the events that the survey was about were chosen, in addition to clarifying the methodology of classifying positions. The classification utilises the same numerical method used in the classification in the case of the revolutionary and opposition forces, however with the addition of a 6th option of not answering due to not being concerned. There were 362 questionnaires answered with the sample consisting of 77% males and 23% females, with 55% being current residents of Syria.
In the second chapter we show the consensus among the local populous with regards to 9 events relating to Syria in 2021, one of the main results was as follows: an agreement was felt among the sample, refusing the revival of Assad’s regime and its criminal policy against the areas it doesn’t control. On the other hand, there was some disagreement with regards to the sixth session of the constitutional committee, and the election of sheikh Osama al-Rifai as the republic’s general Mufti.
The third chapter contains consensus indices between revolutionary and opposition factions; there was a general agreement on rejecting the presidential election carried out by Assad’s regime, as well condemning the escalation in Afrin and “QSD’s” oppression of protesters in its area of control. There was however continued disagreement with regards to the issue of the constitutional committee.
In the fourth chapter a comparison was drawn between the opinions of a sample of the local populous and those of the revolutionary and opposition factions towards 9 events. Agreement was only present with regards to 2 events: condemning the escalation in Afrin, specifically the bombing of Asshifa’ hospital, and the election of the republic’s Mufti. Disagreement was obvious towards 4 events: sanctions on Assad’s regime, the teacher strike in northern Syria, and the sixth session of the constitutional committee.
Finally, the general consensus indices between political, militaristic, and local factions as well as the generalised consensus index were presented in the fifth chapter. There was a general rejection of Assad’s presidential elections, as well as overall support to what the Saudi ambassador said about refusing the normalisation of relations with Assad’s regime. As well as agreement amongst the various factions on condemning the use of firepower against protesters by “QSD” in Manbij. What was very noticeable was total agreement between the militaristic factions which is not unusual due to them operating under one umbrella. On the other hand, the noticeable disagreement was between political factions on the issue of the constitutional committee, as no disagreement was found between militaristic and local factions.
The consensus index has shown a relative stability in the level of agreement between the various factions in comparison with the index from 2020, with a minor decrease in the amount of disagreement and silence.
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مؤسسة بحثية سورية تسعى إلى الإسهام في بناء الرؤى والمعارف بما يساعد السوريين على إنضاج حلول عملية لمواجهة التحديات الوطنية المشتركة وتحقيق التنمية المستدامة
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