The Earthquake Opens New Expansion Windows for Iran and Its Militias in Syrian Territories
A Report Issued by the Policy Analysis Unit at the Syrian Dialogue Center
Executive Summary:
The devastating earthquake in Syria has presented an additional opportunity for Iran to solidify its political influence in areas under the control of the Assad regime. Iranian officials swiftly appeared in the affected areas, portraying themselves as caretakers of those territories. Their prompt assistance and presence in Aleppo and Latakia, contrasting the delayed response from Assad’s officials, made these officials look like almost employees of the Iranian embassy and consulate in Aleppo.
Tehran leveraged the earthquake catastrophe to promote its “humanitarian” propaganda, attempting to reshape its bloodstained image created over the years through iron-fisted policies, violence, and displacement. Iranian officials were seen supervising rescue operations and aiding victims in the eastern neighborhoods of Aleppo, which were ravaged nearly seven years ago by the bombardment of Assad’s regime and its Russian and Iranian allies.
Beyond the political and humanitarian exploitation in the Syrian tragedy, Iran and its proxies found a suitable timing, amidst the earthquake, to repeat displacement and demographic change operations in Syria. This involved pressuring civilians to sell their homes under the pretext of them being “vulnerable to collapse” or initiating housing projects that could potentially become future “settlements,” accommodating Iran’s militia elements.
Another aspect of Iran’s exploitation of the Syrian earthquake involves using “humanitarian aid” aircraft to transport weapons to the Assad regime and Hezbollah militias, escaping the scrutiny of American and “Israeli” aircraft. “Israel” has issued warnings about this tactic, subsequently translating its warnings into real-life actions by resuming airstrikes on various positions held by Iranian militias.
The earthquake disaster unequivocally demonstrates that Iran’s presence in Syria is neither transient nor solely linked to supporting Bashar al-Assad in his fight against what his regime labels as “terrorists” or safeguarding “holy shrines.” Iran is pursuing a long and extensive strategic project aimed at embedding its firm and multifaceted influence in Syria, ensuring its ongoing dominance there, even if it means displacing its ally Assad from power through potential settlements.
Read the full report (Arabic)
باحث مساعد في مركز الحوار السوري، يعمل ضمن وحدة تحليل السياسات، كتب وشارك في العديد من الأوراق المتعلقة بتحليل سياسات الفاعلين في سوريا، يحمل إجازة في الأدب العربي من جامعة الفرات السورية، عمل كاتباً وصحفياً ومدققاً لغوياً لعدة سنوات في العديد من المواقع والقنوات الإخبارية.
باحث ومستشار، كتب و شارك في كتابة العديد من الأوراق المتعلقة بالملف السوري. كما عمل مستشاراً وباحثاً في الشأن السوري لدى عدة مراكز سياسات سورية ناشئة، ولدى منظمات دولية. مدرب في مجال أساسيات ريادة الأعمال وأساسيات التحليل السياسي،
