The interactions of Iranian-American relations and their effects on the Syrian file
An analytical report prepared by the Policy Analysis Unit
We have finished the series “lightings on Iranian Relations with the United States and “Israel”, in four publications, has dealt with the most prominent stations that those relations have gone through. Beginning with the period before the Iranian revolution and the Iranian attraction towards the Western camp, passing through the victory of the Iranian revolution and the rise of the “Khomeini” regime and the accompanying attempts of violent export of the revolution, in addition to what the relationship witnessed from the factors of attraction and push in light of the fluctuations of local politics in each of Iran (the duality of reformists and conservatives) and the United States (the duality of Republicans and Democrats) negatively or positively, ending with foreseeing the future of the relationship with the return of conservatives to power in Iran after the victory of (Ebrahim Raisi) in the 2021 presidential elections. This was done based on an extrapolation and analysis of the events and twists and turns related to the Iranian-Israeli-American relations, by referring to what was available to the research team of studies, analyzes and documents that were written about those events from several sources as information that needs verification, comparison and analytical addressing to produce with results. It was necessary to explore the impact of changes in relations between the two parties on the Syrian file, having a clear impact on the Syrian arena, where the United States and Iran are among the most prominent actors and influencers in the Syrian file, for example, many analysts saw that the nuclear agreement with Iran was the worst agreement made by the Obama administration in terms of its repercussions on the Syrian file after the agreement to hand over the “Assad” regime’s chemical weapons, and on the other hand, the US withdrawal from the agreement with Iran in the era of Trump administration had a clear impact on the tension between the two countries, that’s led to the US-Iranian skirmishes in the Gulf region and Iraq, leading to the assassination of “Qassem Soleimani”, and the impact of US “maximum pressure” policies on Lebanon, Assad regime, and the accompanying implementation of Caesar’s Act during the era of US President Trump.
In this paper, we will attempt to highlight the most important determinants of the Iranian-American “Israeli” relationship in a panoramic summary of the previous four publications (a series of highlights on American-Israeli-Iranian relations), to build a comprehensive vision about the relationship’s dynamics, and understanding the factors that drive them in agreement or disagreement in order to help optimally deal with the interactions of this relationship, and to understand the intersections and common interests that can be built upon for the benefit of the Syrian people and their cause in the face of the Iranian project in Syria, as part of the efforts of the Syrian Dialogue Center to increase awareness and realistic knowledge of the behaviors of the various local, regional and international actors influencing the Syrian cause , especially after the complexity of the Syrian issue and the large number of actors and influencers in it
The complex and changeable relationship between Iran on the one hand and the United States and “Israel” on the other hand misleads some elites – as well as the opinions of the public – to fall into the trap of reducing the relationship to simple descriptions that out of proportion to its complex context reality, such as hostility, secret alliance or subordination. It is a mistake resulting from not delving into the complexities of politics and the contradictions and changes of international interests, and this confirms the importance of launching any action to confront Iranian influence (as one of the most important actions in the context of supporting the Syrian cause) from a deep understanding of the complexities of that relationship determined by broader and more comprehensive files than being confined to geography Syria, especially with regard to the Iranian-Israeli relationship, which is often the subject of constant controversy between some who try to deny Iranian “Israeli” competition and hostility and those who identify with Iranian propaganda that focuses on the so-called “axis of resistance” which confirms the need to build a media strategy that clarifies the connection of this contradictory relationship with Iran’s expansionist regionalism project, which aims to reach the rule of the Islamic world and the region by adopting and exporting its own paradigm through “wilayat al-faqih” and exploiting the Palestine issue to promote its paradigm of hegemony and expansion, which comes within purely political goal, attempting to wash its black criminal sectarian behavior, and to obtaining a document of innocence of the crimes it commits in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, and polishing its image in front of the Arab and Islamic worlds.
A good follow-up and an accurate understanding of the Iranian venture and its objectives allows for the possibility of carrying out public awareness activities in the media, politically, socially and culturally in order to resist Iran and its project in Syria and the region in general. The venture that outweighs any other existential occupational project in the region, which the Syrian opposition forces should focus on, with a continuous focus on clarifying the sectarian behavior of the Iranian regime, and the nature of the pragmatic relationship it weaves with other regional and international actors, especially the United States and “Israel.” Understanding the contradictions, changes and convergence of interests, focusing on facts without relying on exaggerations or conspiracy theories, and continuous communication with regional and international bodies and institutions, especially the Arab powers that suffer from Iranian expansion directly. Despite some in attempts to achieve a kind of improving in Iranian-Arab relations (Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Egypt in particular to varying degrees) recently after a relatively long political rupture, some expected that the differences between them would be resolved gradually. However, the contradictions in interests and Iran’s insistence on pursuing its sectarian venture that threatens the security and existence of the countries of the region impede a real and effective path of rapprochement, it is not expected that Iran will retreat from its political ideology based on “wilayat al-faqih” to reach the domination of Islamic world, especially after achieving some of its goals in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon, which many countries in the region view as a threat. It is necessary to work on building a narrative and media discourse that exposes the malicious Iranian hostile activities, practices and violations in the region in general, and in Syria in particular, in order to mobilize Arab and international public opinion to curb Iranian influence, and mobilize efforts to focus on criminalizing Iran and its perpetration of war crimes against the Syrian people and the various peoples of the region, and its attempt laundering its crimes through trade with the propaganda of “Resistance and Reluctance”. It is worth mentioning here that the many crimes of Iran, its militias, and the Assad regime that Iran supports highlight that the no need to incriminate Iran through proving its complicity with “Israel”. This is also related to raising the Arab and Islamic popular awareness to move away from glorifying any entity or state simply for its resistance to “Israel” due to an immediate or even strategic conflict of interest with it, especially after the Assad regime and many other dictatorial regimes exploited the propaganda of the resistance against “Israel” for a long time to justify their crimes as they invaded the state and society, suppress freedoms and prevent reforms.
It is important to push towards an Arab-Turkish consensus as Turkey is the most capable regional power to make balance against Iran, especially with the decline of the American role in the region with the difficulty of confronting Iranian influence in Syria without relying on a supportive regional power at a time when the rivalry between Turkey and Iran has escalated recently in many regional fields, as they are two influential and competing poles as a result of their conflicting interests in several regions, such as Syria, Iraq and Azerbaijan. The Syrian arena is a vital area for Iranian-Turkish tactical competition. This coincides with the attempt to take advantage of the contradictions and competition between Iran on the one hand and the United States and “Israel” on the other, without going far in depending on the contradictions because they are variable and unstable as they can turn into consensus at the expense of the Syrian people and the peoples who are burned through the fire of Iranian’s sectarian venture, as happened when the Obama administration overlooked Iran’s expansion in Syria aiming urging it to sign the nuclear agreement.
مؤسسة بحثية سورية تسعى إلى الإسهام في بناء الرؤى والمعارف بما يساعد السوريين على إنضاج حلول عملية لمواجهة التحديات الوطنية المشتركة وتحقيق التنمية المستدامة
