{"id":20649,"date":"2025-11-21T13:59:19","date_gmt":"2025-11-21T10:59:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sydialogue.org\/?p=20649"},"modified":"2026-02-24T14:01:46","modified_gmt":"2026-02-24T11:01:46","slug":"syria-and-the-israeli-threat-between-shifts-in-the-regional-security-environment-coercive-pressures-and-response-options","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sydialogue.org\/en\/syria-and-the-israeli-threat-between-shifts-in-the-regional-security-environment-coercive-pressures-and-response-options\/","title":{"rendered":"Syria and the \u201cIsraeli\u201d Threat: Between Shifts in the Regional Security Environment, Coercive Pressures, and Response Options"},"content":{"rendered":"

Executive Summary:<\/strong><\/span><\/h3>\n

Syria today finds itself at the heart of a turbulent regional environment in which balances of power are shifting at an unprecedented pace. Within this context, the rise of increasingly extremist currents inside \u201cIsrael\u201d has elevated the level of direct threat to southern Syria and generated new military and political realities that go beyond traditional security pretexts. The \u201cIsraeli\u201d attack on Qatar, accompanied by an expansive discourse reviving notions of \u201cGreater Israel,\u201d has contributed to redefining perceptions of threat among Gulf states, Egypt, and Turkey. It has also opened the door to strategic transformations, including the strengthening of new defense partnerships, an expanded Chinese presence, and declining confidence in U.S. security guarantees.<\/p>\n

Within this volatile setting, U.S. credibility\u2014despite Washington\u2019s efforts to absorb regional anger\u2014appears to be eroding. Previous arrangements, ranging from designating Qatar as a \u201cmajor non-NATO ally\u201d to the deployment of advanced U.S. forces, failed to prevent the \u201cIsraeli\u201d strike.<\/p>\n

At the same time, ongoing Russian violations in Eastern Europe and the 2015 incident in which Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft illustrate the limits of the American security umbrella and its capacity to deter real threats. This places any proposed \u201csecurity guarantee\u201d in Syrian\u2013\u201cIsraeli\u201d negotiations under a cloud of doubt, especially given Washington\u2019s overt bias in favor of \u201cIsrael.\u201d<\/p>\n

Parallel to this, \u201cIsraeli\u201d ambitions in southern Syria are increasingly revealed as a project that goes beyond the concept of a mere \u201cbuffer zone.\u201d Tel Aviv combines security discourse with a religious\u2013ideological backdrop rooted in Jewish religious narratives, presenting its control as a form of \u201chistorical restoration.\u201d These narratives have been accompanied by political efforts to revive claims over old Jewish properties in Hauran and the Golan, and by shocking public statements portraying Damascus as part of an \u201cIsraeli-targeted geopolitical space.\u201d<\/p>\n

Security negotiation agendas between Damascus and \u201cIsrael\u201d likewise appear to extend beyond border arrangements toward attempts to reinsert the new Syrian state into a broader regional architecture. U.S.\u2013\u201cIsraeli\u201d proposals have reportedly included establishing a U.S. military presence near Damascus, linking sanctions relief to Syria\u2019s accession to the \u201cAbraham Accords,\u201d and securing implicit Syrian acceptance of the \u201cIsraeli\u201d occupation of the Golan, in addition to hints regarding potential roles in the disarmament of \u201cHezbollah\u201d and even \u201cHamas.\u201d<\/p>\n

This complex environment places the new Syria before four principal paths: outright rejection of pressures; cautious positive adaptation; limited openness driven by necessity; or broad normalization that would grant \u201cIsrael\u201d far-reaching strategic gains. Analysis of the available data suggests that the most viable course is calibrated positive adaptation: rejecting normalization and any erosion of sovereignty, while managing regional complexities in a balanced manner and avoiding being drawn into an uncalculated military confrontation.<\/p>\n

Such an approach requires strengthening internal resilience through activating the role of the new parliament, constructing a clear national narrative that frames southern Syria as a daily frontline with occupation, and demonstrating explicit alignment with populations facing \u201cIsraeli\u201d aggression. It also necessitates launching a comprehensive national program to address the \u201cIsraeli\u201d threat, integrating security, political, and media tools, enhancing state maneuverability, and preventing international pressure from being converted into imposed normalization or dangerous sovereign concessions.<\/p>\n

Turkey\u2019s experience following the \u201ctwelve-day war\u201d between \u201cIsrael\u201d and Iran\u2014when Ankara began preparing for potential confrontation despite its relative strength and stability\u2014demonstrates that recognizing strategic threats is not a theoretical luxury but a security imperative. If Turkey deemed it necessary to prepare for confrontation scenarios, then Syria, already at the center of \u201cIsraeli\u201d targeting, is even more in need of a comprehensive national doctrine for managing this threat.<\/p>\n

In light of all the above, the new Syria has an opportunity to redefine its regional position by adopting a path that balances steadfastness on national constants with flexible movement within a new web of regional equilibria\u2014without becoming a coerced or subordinate actor, and without embarking on military adventures that lead to painful outcomes.<\/p>\n

To read the full report click here (Arabic<\/a>)<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Executive Summary: Syria today finds itself at the heart of a turbulent regional environment in which balances of power are shifting at an unprecedented pace. Within this context, the rise of increasingly extremist currents inside \u201cIsrael\u201d has elevated the level of direct threat to southern Syria and generated new military and political realities that go …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":20650,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[91,53,46],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20649","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-policy-analysis-unit-en","category-progress-report-en","category-publications"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nSyria and the \u201cIsraeli\u201d Threat: Between Shifts in the Regional Security Environment, Coercive Pressures, and Response Options - Syrian Dialogue Center<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Syria today finds itself at the heart of a turbulent regional environment in which balances of power are shifting at an unprecedented pace. 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