{"id":12375,"date":"2021-03-22T23:35:59","date_gmt":"2021-03-22T20:35:59","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/sydialogue.org\/?p=12375"},"modified":"2023-08-19T23:44:06","modified_gmt":"2023-08-19T20:44:06","slug":"bolgesel-ve-uluslararasi-buyuk-gelismelerin-ortasinda-iliskilerin-dalgalanmasi","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sydialogue.org\/tr\/bolgesel-ve-uluslararasi-buyuk-gelismelerin-ortasinda-iliskilerin-dalgalanmasi\/","title":{"rendered":"B\u00f6lgesel ve Uluslararas\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck Geli\u015fmelerin Ortas\u0131nda \u0130li\u015fkilerin Dalgalanmas\u0131"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u00d6zet<\/strong>:<\/strong><\/span><\/h2>\n

Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemi, yirminci ve yirmi birinci y\u00fczy\u0131llarda d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktalar\u0131n\u0131 temsil eden b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel olaylara tan\u0131k olunan bir d\u00f6nemde, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD ve ikinci olarak da \u201c\u0130srail\u201d ile ili\u015fkilerinin dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 ele almas\u0131ndan kaynaklanmaktad\u0131r. Bu b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel geli\u015fmelerin ba\u015fl\u0131calar\u0131 \u015funlard\u0131: Sovyetler Birli\u011fi’nin \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fc, Irak’\u0131n Kuveyt’i i\u015fgali ve ard\u0131ndan Irak’a y\u00f6nelik yap\u0131lan uluslararas\u0131 m\u00fcdahale, 11 Eyl\u00fcl olaylar\u0131 ve ard\u0131ndan Irak ve Afganistan’\u0131n i\u015fgali ve Arap-\u0130srail Bar\u0131\u015f S\u00fcrecinin ba\u015flamas\u0131. Ayr\u0131ca \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma ortak d\u00fc\u015fman ve tehdit durumundaki de\u011fi\u015fim t\u00fcr\u00fcnden, ili\u015fkilerdeki de\u011fi\u015fim dinamiklerine odaklanmay\u0131 ama\u00e7lamaktad\u0131r. Sovyetler Birli\u011fi ve Irak’\u0131n hem \u201c\u0130srail\u201d hem de \u0130ran i\u00e7in ortak bir tehdit olma olas\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131n azalmas\u0131 \u015feklinde ifade bulan, ayn\u0131 bi\u00e7imde Afganistan ve Irak sava\u015flar\u0131nda \u0130ran ve ABD aras\u0131nda ortak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131n ve bir koordinasyonun varl\u0131k bulmas\u0131na zemin haz\u0131rlayan 11 Eyl\u00fcl olaylar\u0131n\u0131n ard\u0131ndan \u201cter\u00f6rle m\u00fccadele\u201dye do\u011fru bir d\u00f6n\u00fcm noktas\u0131 \u015feklinde ortaya \u00e7\u0131kan da budur. Burada ayn\u0131 dinamiklerin\/muharrik unsurlar\u0131n daha sonra, I\u015e\u0130D\u2019in b\u00fcy\u00fck y\u00fckseli\u015fine tan\u0131k oldu\u011fumuzda tekrarland\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 belirtmekte fayda var. N\u00fckleer anla\u015fmay\u0131 imzalayan Obama y\u00f6netiminin atmosferinde ABD-\u0130ran ortak koordinasyonunun yeniden \u00f6n\u00fcn\u00fc a\u00e7an ve bug\u00fcn baz\u0131 Arap \u00fclkelerinin “\u0130srail” ile ili\u015fkilerini g\u00fc\u00e7lendirme noktas\u0131nda ellerini \u00e7abuk tutmas\u0131nda tan\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz da bu husustur.<\/p>\n

Tarihsel baz\u0131 olaylar\u0131n birbirine benzerli\u011fi, kimilerini \u201cTarih tekerr\u00fcrden ibarettir\u201d demeye itiyor. Saiklerin ve dinamiklerin\/muharrik unsurlar\u0131n benzerli\u011finden dolay\u0131 tarihsel olaylar\u0131n benzer oldu\u011fu do\u011frudur. Bu da b\u00f6lgenin gelecekte ya\u015fanacak geli\u015fmelerini ve buradaki karma\u015f\u0131k uluslararas\u0131 ili\u015fkileri \u00f6ng\u00f6rmek i\u00e7in incelemeye ve g\u00f6zlemlemeye de\u011fer bir husustur.<\/p>\n

Giri\u015f:<\/strong><\/span><\/h1>\n

1979’da \u0130ran devriminin y\u00fckseli\u015fi, bilhassa yeni \u0130ran rejiminin kom\u015fu \u00fclkeler i\u00e7in bir g\u00fcvenlik tehdidi manas\u0131 ta\u015f\u0131yan \u201cdevrimi ihra\u00e7 etme\u201d stratejisini benimsemesinden sonra genel olarak b\u00f6lgede ciddi bir de\u011fi\u015fim meydana getirdi. Ta ki \u015fu anda tan\u0131k oldu\u011fumuz gibi \u0130ran’\u0131n kollar\u0131 gerek silahla gerekse silah kullanmadan daha ba\u015fka taktiklerle, Irak’la ba\u015flayan ve Suriye ve Yemen’le de s\u0131n\u0131rl\u0131 kalmayan muhtelif Arap \u00fclkelerine uzand\u0131.<\/p>\n

Ayn\u0131 ba\u011flamda olacak bi\u00e7imde, \u0130ran devrimi, mazlumlara ve zay\u0131flara yard\u0131mc\u0131 olmak gibi \u00e7ekici ideolojik sloganlar\u0131 beraberinde getirdi. Bu sloganlar da ABD ile gerilim, \u0130srail ile diplomatik ili\u015fkilerin kesilmesi, \u0130srail b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011finin Filistin b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011fine d\u00f6n\u00fc\u015ft\u00fcr\u00fclmesi ve ABD ile \u0130ran’\u0131n birka\u00e7 s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmesinin olmas\u0131 gibi pek \u00e7ok \u015feyle peki\u015ftirildi. Bu s\u00fcrt\u00fc\u015fmelerin g\u00f6ze en \u00e7ok \u00e7arpan\u0131, ABD b\u00fcy\u00fckel\u00e7ili\u011fi krizi ve ABD diplomatlar\u0131n\u0131n Tahran’da al\u0131konulmas\u0131yd\u0131. Bu da tart\u0131\u015fmalara yol a\u00e7an ve \u00e7eli\u015fkili g\u00f6r\u00fcnen bir\u00e7ok uygulamayla e\u015f zamanl\u0131 olarak ger\u00e7ekle\u015fti. \u0130ran-Irak sava\u015f\u0131ndaki \u0131srar ve hemen sonras\u0131nda Irak ve Afganistan\u2019da ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen ABD-\u0130ran i\u015f birli\u011fi bu uygulamalardand\u0131. \u0130ran rejiminin ABD ve \u201c\u0130srail\u201d ile ili\u015fkilerinin ger\u00e7ekli\u011fini tart\u0131\u015f\u0131l\u0131r yapan ve s\u00f6z konusu ili\u015fkiyi d\u00fc\u015fmanl\u0131k, gizli ittifak ya da ba\u011f\u0131ml\u0131l\u0131k gibi basit nitelemelerle tan\u0131mlamaya y\u00f6nelik baz\u0131 giri\u015fimlerin ortaya \u00e7\u0131kmas\u0131ndan sonra aralar\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkinin dinamiklerini sorgulanabilir k\u0131lan da bunlard\u0131. \u0130ki taraf aras\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fen g\u00fcvenlik, askeri ve siyasi t\u00fcm hesapla\u015fmalar\u0131n, Arap d\u00fcnyas\u0131na h\u00e2kim olma ve buralar\u0131n n\u00fcfuzunu payla\u015fma plan\u0131 i\u00e7indeki bir tiyatrodan ba\u015fka bir \u015fey olmad\u0131\u011f\u0131na inan\u0131lan ve komplo teorisi olarak adland\u0131r\u0131lan \u015fey de budur. \u00d6te yandan, ba\u015fkalar\u0131 da ideolojiden t\u00fcretilen ger\u00e7ek bir \u201cvarolu\u015f m\u00fccadelesinden\u201d bahsediyor. \u00dcstelik, bu m\u00fccadelenin, \u0130ran ve \u0130srail aras\u0131nda s\u00fcrekli var olan gerilimi sona erdirecek kapsaml\u0131 bir \u00e7\u00f6z\u00fcme ula\u015fmas\u0131n\u0131 engelleyen dini boyutlar\u0131 da bulunuyor.<\/p>\n

Bu makale, hem geli\u015fmeler ve dinamikler hakk\u0131nda ger\u00e7ek\u00e7i, nesnel ve b\u00fct\u00fcnc\u00fcl bir anlay\u0131\u015fa ula\u015fmak hem de \u0130ran, \u0130srail ve ABD\u2019yi bir araya getiren karma\u015f\u0131k ve i\u00e7 i\u00e7e ge\u00e7mi\u015f ili\u015fkinin gizemini ortaya \u00e7\u0131karmak amac\u0131yla bu konuya \u0131\u015f\u0131k tutan bir dizinin par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak yay\u0131nlan\u0131yor.\u00a0 Makale, b\u00f6lgesel ve uluslararas\u0131 \u00e7evre ile ili\u015fkilerde daha titiz bir tasavvur geli\u015ftirmeye yard\u0131mc\u0131 olacak ve Suriye’deki \u0130ran projesinin tehlikelerini engellemek i\u00e7in \u00fczerine in\u015fa edilebilecek kesi\u015fim noktalar\u0131n\u0131 ve ortak \u00e7\u0131karlar\u0131 anlamaya yarayacak bi\u00e7imde, iki taraf aras\u0131ndaki ili\u015fkilerin evrilece\u011fi yeri tahmin etmeyi ve iki taraf\u0131 anla\u015fmaya ve anla\u015fmazl\u0131\u011fa iten fakt\u00f6rleri anlamay\u0131 hedefliyor.<\/p>\n

Bu analitik \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, \u0130ran-Irak sava\u015f\u0131 sonras\u0131ndan \u0130ran Cumhurba\u015fkan\u0131 Ahmedinejad d\u00f6nemine kadarki \u0130ran-\u0130srail-ABD ili\u015fkilerine dair olaylar\u0131n ve d\u00f6neme\u00e7lerin incelenmesine ve analizine dayal\u0131 olarak haz\u0131rland\u0131. Sonu\u00e7lardan \u00e7\u0131kt\u0131 almak amac\u0131yla do\u011frulama, kar\u015f\u0131la\u015ft\u0131rma ve analitik i\u015fleme gerektiren bilgiler olmas\u0131 itibariyle \u00e7e\u015fitli ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131 veya politikac\u0131lar taraf\u0131ndan bu olaylar hakk\u0131nda yaz\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rma ekibinin elindeki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar, analizler ve belgeler referans al\u0131narak haz\u0131rland\u0131. Ger\u00e7eklere m\u00fcmk\u00fcn oldu\u011fu kadar ula\u015fmak i\u00e7in ara\u015ft\u0131rma ekibinin \u00fczerine kafa yordu\u011fu da buydu.<\/p>\n

Bir \u00f6nceki k\u0131s\u0131mda, II. D\u00fcnya Sava\u015f\u0131’n\u0131n sona ermesinden ba\u015flayarak, \u0130ran devriminin zaferi ve Humeyni’nin Tahran’da iktidara gelmesiyle devam edip devrimi ihra\u00e7 etme \u00e7abalar\u0131 ve \u0130ran d\u0131\u015f politikas\u0131nda meydana gelen de\u011fi\u015fikliklerle sonu\u00e7land\u0131rmak suretiyle \u0130ran-ABD-\u0130srail ili\u015fkisini sunduktan sonra; bu say\u0131da, So\u011fuk Sava\u015f’\u0131n sona ermesinden ABD’nin, Afganistan ve Irak’\u0131 i\u015fgaline kadarki ABD-\u0130srail-\u0130ran ili\u015fkisini do\u011frudan etkileyen en \u00f6nemli noktalara odaklanaca\u011f\u0131z. Bununla beraber \u0130ran’\u0131n, \u015eer Ekseni\u2019nin bir par\u00e7as\u0131 olarak tasnif edilmesine ve buna ba\u011fl\u0131 olarak ABD-\u0130ran aras\u0131ndaki i\u015f birli\u011fi ve uyumsuzlu\u011fa yo\u011funla\u015faca\u011f\u0131z.<\/p>\n

Raporun tamam\u0131n\u0131 okuyun (Arap\u00e7a)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemi, b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel olaylara tan\u0131k olunan bir d\u00f6nemde, \u0130ran’\u0131n ABD ve \u201c\u0130srail\u201d ile ili\u015fkilerinin dalgalanmalar\u0131n\u0131 ele almas\u0131ndan ileri geliyor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":12376,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[78,94,49],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-research-and-studies-tr","category-politika-analizi-birimi","category-yayinlar"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nB\u00f6lgesel ve Uluslararas\u0131 B\u00fcy\u00fck Geli\u015fmelerin Ortas\u0131nda \u0130li\u015fkilerin Dalgalanmas\u0131 - Suriye Diyalog Merkezi<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Bu \u00e7al\u0131\u015fman\u0131n \u00f6nemi, b\u00fcy\u00fck tarihsel olaylara tan\u0131k 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