Effects of the earthquake and Turkish elections on the decisions of Syrians in Turkey

Executive Summary:

Syrians in Turkey have experienced a series of changes in their relationship with the Turkish environment over more than a decade, ranging from a warm welcome to an increase in racist and hostile rhetoric and behavior towards them.

The negative presence of Syrians in Turkey seems to become a recurring theme during each Turkish political or economic crisis, almost as if it has become a necessity in the Turkish public scene. Syrian issues have been exploited by many political parties, particularly opposition parties, in internal conflicts that conclude with every electoral event, economic project, or others.

The earthquake of February 2023 became a significant and pivotal event in the present and future of the majority of Syrians living in the southern Turkish provinces, potentially impacting Syrians residing outside those areas as well.

Given these changes and the involvement of Syrian narratives in the discussions of the Turkish presidential and parliamentary election process, Syrians’ future options diverge. This report sheds light on the perceptions, choices, fears, and concerns of Syrians following the earthquake that struck the southern Turkish and northern Syrian provinces, just before the upcoming Turkish presidential and parliamentary elections in May 2023, along with the promises and campaigns of various Turkish political parties that might affect the fate of Syrians.

The report, adopting a descriptive-analytical approach with 400 respondents in three areas – the severely affected earthquake regions, the least affected earthquake areas, and areas unaffected by the earthquake – took into account the proportional representation of independent report variables.

The report concluded several key points, including:

• 17.76% of the sample from the earthquake areas lost one or more family members or relatives.
• Significant material losses were reported, including house destruction, damage to household furniture, loss of money and savings, loss of merchandise and goods for traders, and loss of personal identification documents.
• Half of the Syrians in the sample lost their jobs due to the earthquake and its aftermath.
• Syrian families relied on aid from family, relatives, Syrian, Turkish, and international organizations.
• An increased sense of hatred, racism, and exclusion against Syrians was reported.
• A significant percentage acknowledged the forceful eviction of Syrians from their homes in earthquake-stricken areas, accompanied by a substantial increase in house rents for Syrians.
• Rising calls for the deportation of Syrians, accompanied by acts of violence such as physical assaults or attempts thereof, along with prevalent racist behavior and complaints, have been observed in the current Turkish social scene.
• Increased emotional and physical violence was reported in the severely affected earthquake areas, Hatay and Mersin, compared to other earthquake-affected regions.
• Syrians considered various scenarios after the earthquake, including migration to Europe or another country, moving to another Turkish city, or returning to Syria, with the latter being the least considered option.
• The most concerning aspect for Syrians is the anticipation of violence or attacks, especially if the Turkish opposition wins the upcoming elections.
• Expectations of negative measures include tightened laws and regulations affecting Syrians’ lives in Turkey, normalization with the Assad regime, forced return to Syria, and violence against Syrians if the opposition wins the upcoming Turkish elections.
• 30.5% considered migration to Europe, while 30.8% considered migration to other countries outside Turkey, with only 4.8% considering returning to Syria.

Read the full report (Arabic)