Executive Summary:

• Syrian immigration had many aspects of impact on the hosting Turkish society. With the decline of the economic situation in Turkey due to complex reasons, the Syrian issue, particularly the Syrian refugee issue became one of the most controversial issues among the political parties in Turkey, consequently, it seems very important to explore the impact of Syrian immigration on the economic situation in Turkey, especially given it overlaps and intersects with the other political social factors. Most notably, the ratio of Syrian immigrants to the indigenous population reached 4.25% at the end of 2022, with about 4 million Syrians in Turkey.
• The waves of Syrian immigration to Türkiye had multi-faceted effects on the economic and social levels, such as real estate and housing rents, prices of goods and services, the labor market, including formal and informal employment, as well as unemployment and employment rates. This has also led to the production of various goods and services including new goods and products, or goods having new specifications, consequently, this contributed to a significant increase in Turkish production and exports.
• This confirms the importance of understanding the different influences in an integrated and indivisible manner, in order to have a fair understanding away from bias. For example, it is important to observe the impact on unemployment rates along with other factors such as increased enterprise creation, decreased market concentration, increased competition, and increased export rates. An integrated and comprehensive view can be useful in making rational and good policies.
• Some studies mentioned that Syrian workers are causing unemployment for a category of Turkish workers as a result of competition, due to the fact that Syrian workers work for lower prices and longer hours, which makes them preferred by business owners. On the other hand, other studies minimized this effect and highlighted opposite outcomes that occurred such as creating job opportunities for Turkish citizens in the private, the governmental, and the charitable and NGO sectors. It cited a prominent example of this by highlighting unemployment figures in the state of Gaziantep, where unemployment reached its highest level in 2007 with a percentage of 18%, but it decreased significantly in the years 2013 and 2014 to a rate of 7.3% in general among the skilled and unskilled labor force. This was coincided with the peak of Syrian immigration to Gaziantep. Which confirms the need for an integrated view of the outcome of the Syrian presence, including workers, businessmen, charities, educated people, and the economic activities they created, while avoiding a unilateral view of some cases or sectors where intense competition occurred at certain times.
• Perhaps the most prominent positive economic impact of Syrians was facilitating and increasing export rates, as they contributed to stimulating exports to the Middle East and North Africa region in particular through their investments, labor and facilitating of trade with those countries by virtue of cultural ties and language knowledge. Where Knowledge and experience about the MENA region played an important and vital role in reducing informational and cultural barriers, providing matching and referral services, and increasing contract enforcement in trade.
• Companies owned by Syrian citizens tend to export at a higher rate than companies owned by Turkish citizens, as 55% of Syrian companies are export-oriented, while only 31% of Turkish companies are export-oriented. It was also noted that the increase in the number of immigrants to the number of indigenous people increases the proportion of exporting companies.
• The number of Syrian-owned companies has reached about 20 thousand companies in the year 2021, and the employment rate for each company is an average of 7 people, including Turkish citizens, however, the largest percentage of their staff is often Syrians supporting their families in Turkey and Syria. These companies contribute to taxes, license and job creation as is the case with the rest of the licensed Turkish companies.
• With regards to the impact on prices, the influx of Syrian immigrants in the early stages of the Syrian immigration to Turkey led to an increase in the demand for goods and services. Including rent prices and some food products in some areas with a large presence of Syrian immigrants, which led to an increase in the cost of living. However, due to the entry of Syrians with their low-cost labor that stimulated production, their trade relations with the countries of the Middle East and North Africa, their establishment of new companies and the increase in competition between companies as a result of an increase in their number (what is known as a decrease in market concentration), there was an increase in supply and a decrease in prices of several products and services, particularly those produced through the informal labor-intensive sectors amount to approximately 4%.
• The Syrians contributed through their investments, labor, establishment of companies, and their contribution to exports to the growth of the Turkish GDP. The total value-added effect resulting from the work of Syrians in the Turkish economy is estimated at about 27.2 billion Turkish liras at the end of 2017, which represents 1.96% of the Turkish GDP, with an expected increase to 4.05% in 2028.
• With regard to the increase in Turkish public spending on Syrians based on some official statements, tracking of the same official sources shows that these funds include spending in areas of Turkish influence inside Syria as well, in addition to the aid provided by civil society organizations and charities (NGOs).These NGOs practically receive the bulk of their funding from donors, mainly from international organizations and the United Nations, which in turn receive their fund from international donors, additionally, NGOs receive fund from individual donors.This confirms that most of the funds are not paid by the Turkish taxpayers, furthermore, international aid comes in foreign currencies, whose conversion to the local currency contributes to supporting the economy.
• The lack of transparency regarding the sources and expenditures of Turkish spending on Syrian refugees has contributed to the opportunity for some parties to exploit the ambiguity to incite against the Syrian presence and exaggerate its economic costs.
• The social, political, internal, and external factors have contributed to the complexity of the issue of Syrian presence in Turkey. The economic dimension is exaggerated and used as a pretext to incite against the Syrian presence, while the underlying reasons for incitement go beyond economic motives to social, political, and identity dimensions. This is particularly coinciding with the increasing polarization within the Turkish society on many issues.
• The study has proposed a number of recommendations to be worked on in the short and long term. In the short term, there is a necessity to conduct advocacy campaigns for Syrians within Turkish communities, to enhance relationships and cooperation with various political parties and civil society organizations that support the discourse of citizenship, justice, and human rights, to strengthen relationships and cooperation with professional associations, labor unions, chambers of commerce and industry, and to support the participation of Syrians in the mentioned institutions. It is important also to support the publications and statistics issued by the mentioned institutions about the contributions of Syrians in commercial, professional, and industrial sectors. In addition, there is a need to support active labor market policies aimed at combating unemployment among Turkish citizens, and to prepare economic and social studies on the most appropriate economically and socially feasible investments and interventions.
• One of the proposed long-term recommendations is to work on a long-term developmental project based on principles of citizenship, justice, and good neighborliness among the various components of the region, including Arabs, Turks, Kurds, and others, leading to a cultural and economic integration based on interests, human and ethical principles. Additionally, it is important to promote dialogue and mutual respect between Arab, Turkish, Kurdish, and other cultural components of the region by supporting meetings between various research centers, intellectuals, scientists, and influencers, and benefiting from the experiences of the European Union and other regional cooperatives. It is also important to bridge the Arab-Turkish gap through cultural exchange and dialogue.

Introduction:

The Syrian migration to Turkey constitutes a wide area for research due to the controversy it caused within Turkish society, specifically political circles, not to mention it being one of the main components of the problems related to the Syrian issue. A component that has witnessed intersections of the influence exerted by local actors as well as regional and global actors. The migration issues have also been largely influential in policy making with regards to the Syrian file in general, especially for countries that hosted large numbers of refugees such as Turkey, Jordan and Lebanon as well as the European Union.

The hosting Turkish society has been affected the Syrian migration on a multitude of levels, and with the regression of the economic situation in Turkey due to complex reasons and the politicisation of this issue by various political parties, by tying this economic collapse to the Syrian migration issue; it seems to be of the utmost importance to identify the main effects of Syrian migration on the Turkish economic situation, as well as clarifying the intersection of this influence with the inner heated discussion around the Syrian presence in Turkey. And finally analysing the political environment that produces this influence and the way it is read and understood by various societal groups, given that the societal and political context form a very critical environment that affects the economy.

Indeed the popularity of many incorrect stereotypes about Syrian migrants, such as them receiving financial aid from the government, have contributed to a general sentiment of blaming them for the worsening of economic conditions in the country. Leading to making the presence of Syrian migrants one of the main points of political contention in between political parties in Turkey, increasing the anxiety and tensions against migrants in general and Syrians particularly due to their wide presence.

And in contrast, in an effort to ease tensions and removing the migrant card from some opposition parties, many statements were released by some current or previous politicians and advisors in the Turkish government with regards to the positive effects of Syrian migrants on the Turkish economy and that they do not form a burden on the state’s treasury. Which motivates the investigation of the influence of Syrian migration to Turkey on the economic situation there, and the possibility of utilising it in increasing societal harmony between the hosting society and migrants.

This paper attempts to survey the main effects of the economic Syrian migration to Turkey, and some of its societal complications, through answering some crucial questions such as:

What are the main economic effects of Syrian migration to Turkey? And how did these effects take place?

That is because knowing the mechanism of these effects has great importance in analysing the possibility of augmenting these effects if they were positive, or minimising and avoiding them if they were negative.

The paper consists of three primary sections in addition to a bundle of recommendations; the first section presents a contextual summary of the Syrian presence in Turkey, while the second section discusses the main economic effects and the mechanism of said effects in an answer to the paper’s main question. In the third section a summary of the political and societal context in Turkey is provided, given that is an important environment and effector in the economic effects and the way these effects take place, especially with regards to societal cohesion that must be understood.

We relied in this study on previous research and what was published in various publicly accessible resources, as well as interviews with a number of experts and Syrian businessmen; some interviews were conducted for this paper specifically and others were given at other times or at workshops attended by the main researcher through his work and activities relating to the topic.

And so, based on our exploration of the answers of the main research questions, and our attempt to form a deep understanding of the societal and political context -especially with regards to societal cohesion- that Turkey has underwent in the previous years, we have provided some conclusions and general recommendations that require further research and surveying to confirm their effectiveness, and expand application options.

To read the full research paper (Arabic)