The effects of the nuclear dossier and internal changes on Iranian American relations
This version comes to discuss the most important stations that affected the Iranian-American-Israeli relations after the fundamentalists came to power in Iran in the year 2005 AD, and to highlight the Nuclear File and its implications and impact, finally attempt to build kind of predictabilities about the future of the nuclear agreement, and the prospects for the return of the United States to it
The rise of the Iranian revolution in 1979 represented an important shift in the region in general, especially after the new Iranian regime adopted the strategy of “exporting the revolution” to neighboring countries. Which represented a security threat to those countries, up to what we are witnessing now of the penetration of armed and unarmed Iranian militias in various countries, starting with Iraq, and not ending in Syria and Yemen.
In the same context, the Iranian revolution adopted ideological slogans attractive to many in the Arab region, such as the support of the oppressed and the vulnerable, reinforced by the apparent tension with the United States, the severing of diplomatic relations with “Israel”, the transformation of the “Israeli” embassy into the Palestinian embassy, and the occurrence of several Iranian frictions With the United States (most notably the American embassy crisis and the detention of American diplomats in Tehran), in conjunction with practices with contradictory connotations, such as the insistence on the Iran-Iraq war, and later the occurrence of US-Iranian cooperation in Iraq and Afghanistan. This sparked controversy about the reality of the Iranian regime’s dealings with the United States and “Israel” and the dynamics of the relationship between them, with the emergence of some attempts to choose the description of the relationship with brief descriptions, Such as hostility, secret alliance, or subordination, which has become known as the “conspiracy theory”, which sees that all the security, military and political confrontations that occur between the two parties are nothing more than representations within a plan to dominate the Arab world and share influence in it. On the other hand, others are talking about a real “existential conflict” that is derived from ideology and has religious dimensions that hinder Iran and “Israel” in particular from reaching a comprehensive solution to end the ongoing tension between them.
This paper comes as part of a series to highlight this issue, to reach a realistic, objective and integrated understanding of the events and dynamics, and to unravel the ambiguity of the complex and intertwined relationship that brought together Iran, “Israel” and the United States of America. With the aim of building capacities to anticipate the outcomes of the relations between the two parties, and to understand the factors driving them in agreement and disagreement, which helps to develop a more accurate vision in dealing with the regional and international environment, and to understand the intersections and common interests that can be built upon to confront the dangers of the Iranian project in Syria.
This analytical study was prepared based on extrapolation and analysis of the events and twists and turns related to the Iranian-Israeli-American relations, by referring to what was available to the research team of studies of analyzes and documents that were written about those events by various researchers or politicians, as information that needs verification, comparison and analytical dealing to get out with results, which is what the research team sought to get to the facts as much as possible.
After we reviewed in the previous three parts the Iranian-American-Israeli relationship; Starting with the end of World War II, passing through the victory of the Iranian revolution in 1979 and its attempts to export the revolution and the transformations that occurred in Iranian foreign policy, and ending with examination of the most important aspects of Iran’s American and “Israeli” relations after the Iran-Iraq war until the period of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; In this publication, we focus on highlighting the most important stations that directly affected the overall Iranian-American “Israeli” relations after the fundamentalist current came to power in Iran in the year 2005 AD, and shed light on Iran’s nuclear dossier and its repercussions and impact on the relationship with the United States And Israel, and finally, an attempt to build a foresight about the future of the nuclear agreement, and the possibilities of the United States returning to it after Joe Biden’s rise to the White House and his victory over his Republican rival Donald Trump in the 2020 presidential elections.
Conclusion:
By tracing the most prominent historical turning points in the dynamics of the relationship between the United States and Iran, it can be said that despite the tensions that marred the relationship between the two parties, it is unlikely that a direct military confrontation would erupt between them, and at the very least, the military option to deal with Iran and its nuclear dossier is no longer available at the American decision-makers table in the coming period, especially with the sensitivity of the Middle East region and the intertwining of the interests of regional and international powers in it, and the possibility of threatening the global oil market, as well as a strong presence of the bitter Afghan and Iraqi experiences in the American mind, with Iran resorting to indirect deterrent tactics using its militia proxies in The region, as the history of Iranian-American relations is replete with settlements, negotiations and pragmatic relations; Which allowed to overcome high tension situations between them over decades.
Although the return of the “fundamentalists” to power in Iran will open the door to a return to the state of tense relations between Iran and the United States, an increase in regional tensions, and a complication of the negotiating process over the nuclear program; However, it does not require Iran to stop negotiations with major powers over its nuclear program, especially with the United States; As the decision to enter into negotiations to reach a solution regarding the nuclear file that ends the complex of sanctions that have plagued the Iranian economy for decades is often a general trend of the Iranian regime, in which the Supreme Leader (Ali Khamenei) sits at the top of the pyramid, the highest authority in the regime and the actual decision-maker In Iran, including nuclear policy, the main lines of domestic and foreign policy, the decision of war and peace, as well as direct authority over unelected bureaucratic institutions, such as the army, the Revolutionary Guards, the intelligence services, and the judicial system. However, the Iranian president remains with a margin through which he can change aspects of the country’s internal and foreign policy, and leave his own mark on the period during which he assumes the presidency, including appointing officials and building a large base that allows him to direct the regime and restructure foreign policy, all with the approval of the “Supreme Guide.” and his approval.
Iran’s ambitions to obtain the role of “regional leadership” and reach the leadership of the Islamic world by adopting its model through “wilayat al-faqih” and using this to benefit its efforts to extract an influential international role, and to confront attempts to change regimes, whether local or international, is a priority over the rest of the goals The strategy of the Iranian regime, and it is at the heart of the Iranian regime’s structure; Which in turn makes it imperative for Iran to maintain its regional supremacy and influence, and to maintain the support of its proxies and allies in the region, especially after achieving part of its expansionist ambitions in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen (especially with the American identification with this goal during the Obama era). To this end, Iran uses some dossiers that it considers a supportive force that enables it to achieve a leading position and wide influence in the region, and international recognition of its status and influence, and among these dossiers are the nuclear file and its ballistic missile program, so Iran may temporarily decline its access to nuclear weapon and possibly freeze its missile program if its role and regional influence in the region are recognized, which was confirmed by Iran’s signature of the nuclear agreement in 2015 and its acceptance of limiting its nuclear capabilities in return for lifting economic sanctions against it; Which has led to the removal of some restrictions and further expansion regionally.
After examining the most prominent stages of Iranian relations with the United States and Israel, starting with the period before the Iranian revolution and the Iranian attraction towards the Western camp, through the victory of the Iranian revolution and the rise of the Khomeini regime and the accompanying violent and soft export attempts of the revolution, besides to what the relationship witnessed later in terms of attracting and motivating factors in light of the fluctuations in internal politics in both Iran (the dualism of reformists and conservatives) and the United States (the dualism of Republicans and Democrats), negatively or positively, and finally predictability to the future of the relationship with the return of conservatives to power in Iran after the victory of the conservationist (Ebrahim Raisi) in the 2021 presidential election; It is worth moving on to examine the reflection of changes in the relations between the parties on the Syrian dossier, as this relationship has a clear impact on the Syrian arena, and trying to come up with an approach that forms the most appropriate discourse for the Syrians to deal with the interactions of this relationship, to which we will dedicate an additional appendix in this series.
to read the report (Arabic): https://sydialogue.org/qhkq
مؤسسة بحثية سورية تسعى إلى الإسهام في بناء الرؤى والمعارف بما يساعد السوريين على إنضاج حلول عملية لمواجهة التحديات الوطنية المشتركة وتحقيق التنمية المستدامة
