The Future of the Nuclear Talks Considering Recent Changes… Expected Scenarios and Possible Effects on the Syrian Issue
Analytical paper produced by the policy analysis unit of the Syrian Dialogue Center
Introduction:
The 2015 nuclear agreement has given Iran a chance to expand its influence and expand regionally, especially given that the agreement ignores Iran’s regional and global role. Thus, the Iranian political project was freed from many obstacles obstructing its expansionist activities, allowing Iran to expand using its various militias. Indeed, Iran has exploited the lifting of economic sanctions and the unfreezing of its assets in foreign banks to increase its support to its agents and reaffirm its influence and hegemony in the region, which has negatively affected the region, especially in Syria.
Based on the possibility of the repetition of what was mentioned in any future agreement, this paper aims to look at the possible scenarios with regards to the nuclear talks in Vienna, and the effects of that on Syria. That is due to what negative effects a nuclear agreement -if it happens- can bring to the Syrian issue as was the case in 2015’s agreement, which was described as the second worst agreement made by the American administration with regards to its effects on the Syrian issue, second only to the agreement resulting in handing Assad’s regime’s chemical weapons.
The paper asks the following questions:
- What is the future of the nuclear talks given the European proposal?
- What are the factors affecting each side’s position?
- What are the main external and internal obstacles to the future of the talks?
- Are there any real effects on the Syrian issue and balance of power there?
The paper relies on the descriptive analytical method, by going over the events and developments in the Vienna talks, in an effort to analyse them and tying them to international changes and positions. All to arrive at a complete and comprehensive image of the context, causes, and results; that is done by using the deductive method and thematic analysis which focuses on points of contention and agreement between the sides of the talks, with respect to the specific event being analysed.
Read the full analysis paper (Arabic)
مؤسسة بحثية سورية تسعى إلى الإسهام في بناء الرؤى والمعارف بما يساعد السوريين على إنضاج حلول عملية لمواجهة التحديات الوطنية المشتركة وتحقيق التنمية المستدامة
